Rating Summary: We maintain a HOLD rating on Unilever Ghana Plc, revising our fair value down by 1.13% to GHS 20.05 per share, implying a modest upside of 1.32% from the current GHS 19.79. We forecast revenue growth of 16.8% y/y to GHS 1.2 bn in FY2026 (vs 11.7% y/y to 1.0bn in FY2025), supported by the reintroduction of Lifebuoy Carbolic Soap, targeted activation, enhanced distribution, the removal of the 1.0% COVID levy, and restrained price pressures that boost consumer purchasing power.
On costs, palm oil price volatility remains a key risk, though input tax credits partially mitigate margin pressure. Energy-intensive operations expose the company to recent utility tariff hikes (electricity +9.86% | water +15.92%), driving OPEX growth to GHS 313.4mn and compressing operating margins to 12.7% (vs 13.9% in FY2025). We expect disciplined cost management and operational efficiency to contain the impact.
Overall, Unilever Ghana is positioned to benefit from revenue tailwinds, but near-term input and operational costs justify a balanced “Hold” rating. Our fair value estimate reflects a blended valuation approach: DCF (40%), P/E (30%), and EV/Sales (30%), with a 15.16% risk-free rate, WACC of 17.3%, and terminal growth of 5.0%.