We amend our rating on Ecobank Ghana (EGH) to “HOLD”, with a higher revised fair value of GHS 49.9 per share, reflecting sustained earnings strength, and improved asset quality. Given the market price of GHS 49.5, this implies an upside of 0.8%. The upward adjustment reflects a lower risk-free rate of 12.8%, down from 15.6% at 9M2025, driven by compressed yields on restructured domestic bonds. We have transitioned from the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to a Build-Up approach, using the average of 3-year and 5-year bond yields plus a 5.0% risk premium, given the lack of statistical robustness in observed equity betas. We also refined our relative valuation by narrowing the peer group to a more comparable subset, enhancing the integrity of our multi-factor linear regression P/B model and improving market-implied alignment. Despite trailing our earnings forecast by 6.0%, EGH delivered resilient FY2025 performance, with profit growth supported by strong trading income and a sharp decline in impairment charges. However, core performance weakened, as net interest income contracted significantly amid margin compression from lower interest income, rising funding costs, and cedi appreciation, resulting in a modest decline in total operating income. Cost discipline provided some support, while asset quality improved with a reduction in Non-Performing Loans ratio (NPLs). Balance sheet dynamics were mixed, with solid loan growth offset by a decline in deposits, pointing to funding mix pressures, although a balanced LCY/FCY mix and cedi appreciation supported liquidity and improved the loan-to-deposit ratio. Capital buffers strengthened, providing capacity for future growth. Structurally, digital initiatives such as EcobankPay continue to offer scalable, low-cost avenues for income diversification, while the bank’s corporate franchise, backed by the ETI Group, remains well-positioned to capture regional flows and cross-border opportunities. We expect medium-term profitability to remain supported by non-interest income growth, digital adoption, and disciplined cost management, although elevated NPLs and persistent margin pressure remain key constraints.
