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Rating Summary:
We amend our rating on Ecobank Ghana (EGH) from “BUY” to “ACCUMULATE”, with a revised fair value of GHS 16.28 per share, implying a 16.0% upside. The upward adjustment in fair value reflects earnings and revenue that exceeded our forecasts by 13.3% and 11.2%, respectively, as well as refinements to our valuation framework including a more statistically robust peer beta and an enhanced multi-factor P/B regression model. However, we believe the near-term upside is limited, prompting the rating revision. EGH’s 9M2025 results were supported by strong non-interest income, particularly a 222.2% surge in trading gains, and lower impairments, which offset weaker interest margins. Operating expenses remained broadly flat, sustaining robust operating leverage, while digital initiatives such as EcobankPay continue to provide scalable, low-cost avenues for income diversification in the informal sector. On the balance sheet, total assets grew 19.1% y/y, supported by measured loan growth and stable deposits. The capital adequacy ratio strengthened y/y to 15.18%, providing a comfortable buffer for expansion, despite a q/q softening from 16.9% likely due to dividend payment. Additionally, a balanced LCY/FCY deposit mix and cedi appreciation improved liquidity and the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR). EGH’s corporate banking franchise, backed by the ETI Group, continues to capture regional flows and support cross-border financing. We expect medium-term profitability to remain resilient, driven by non-interest income growth, digital adoption, and disciplined cost management, though elevated NPLs and margin pressures remain key risks.
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