IC Group

IC Fixed Income and Currency Guide

Written by

Emmanuel Dadzoe

in

IN BRIEF

  • GHANA
    Fixed Income: Money market liquidity improved in December 2025 after the Bank of Ghana reintroduced the 14-day OMO and priced it 400bps below the policy rate, reducing the attractiveness of OMO, fixed deposits and repo instruments. This shift redirected demand to T-bills and drove a modest curve rally, with yields falling by an average of 11bps in December, partly reversing the 29bps uptick in November 2025. We estimate 1Q2026 maturities at GHS 82.8bn (+32.0% q/q), requiring continued accommodative monetary conditions to support refinancing and stabilise yields.

    Currency
    The Cedi staged a late-month rally, rising 10.0% in the final two weeks to deliver an 8.1% net gain in December 2025 and a rare 40.4% appreciation for FY2025 with corporate FX demand easing amid a boost in FX supply. We expect the Cedi to trade broadly range-bound in 2026, with upside risk toward 12.4–12.9/USD from firmer import demand and repricing.

 

  • KENYA
    Fixed Income: Demand for Kenyan T-bills stayed strong in December 2025, with all tenors exceeding targets and maturities. This drove a mild curve flattening as front- and back-end yields edged lower while the belly remained stable. 

    Currency
    The Kenyan Shilling appreciated 0.5% m/m in December 2025, supported by low inflation, attractive real rates and a strong reserve buffer, while softer year-end FX demand cut interbank trade volumes by 12.7%. We expect the USDKES to remain stable within the 129–130/USD range in January 2026 as policy settings continue to anchor the currency

 

  • NIGERIA
    Fixed Income    : Nigeria’s primary T-bill market delivered mixed signals in December 2025 as investor demand exceeded higher offers yet yields rose across the curve. The late-month shortfalls in demand, despite easing inflation, likely reflected festive-driven liquidity needs which, in our view, tempered bids at the final auction 


    Currency

    The Naira gained 0.2% m/m in December 2025 amid renewed crude oil weakness, despite gaining 6.9% in FY2025 as policy and FX reforms bolstered confidence. While reforms underpin stability, we view softening oil price as a downside risk to the currency in the near term.

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