-
- Structural Reset Achieved, Earnings Stabilising: FY2025 marks a clear reset year. Profit after tax rose 14.0% y/y to GHS 304.9mn, supported by stronger core income, lower funding costs and contained impairments. Cost discipline improved operating efficiency, while margins held up despite rate compression. Capital was fully restored, with CAR rebounding to 19.8% and shareholders’ funds rising to GHS 1.6bn, removing the regulatory overhang and stabilising the balance sheet.
-
- Dilution and No Dividends Delay Per-Share Recovery: Recapitalisation materially strengthened solvency but came with a 3.9x increase in shares outstanding, resetting the earnings base. We expect EPS to remain stretched until absolute earnings expand meaningfully. Negative retained earnings of GHS 804.6mn must also be cleared before dividends resume. We do not expect distributions over the next two to three years, implying that shareholder value recovery will lag capital restoration.
-
- Lower Rate Environment Shifts the Earnings Mix: Treasury bill rates have declined into single digits, removing the high-yield support that previously cushioned earnings. We do not expect aggressive reallocation into government securities at lower yields, and trading gains will likely remain episodic. Sustainable profitability will require a shift toward recurring funded income supported by non-funded revenue. We forecast a gradual rebuild of the loan book and expect NIM to improve modestly to 7.4% in FY2026, supported by funding mix optimisation and a strong CASA base.
-
- Asset Quality Improved, but Growth Will Be Measured: NPLs declined to 17.0% following recoveries and write-offs, with GHS 1.0bn in bad loans cleared during the year. While credit risk has moderated, management remains constrained by the regulatory requirement to reduce NPLs to 10% by end-2026. We therefore expect cautious loan growth of about 15.0% per annum in the medium term. CAL has exited stabilisation with stronger capital, improved profitability and a cleaner loan book. However, sustained earnings expansion will depend on disciplined risk selection and execution rather than balance sheet capacity alone.
CalBank Ghana Plc FY2025 Results: Momentum Outpacing Delivery, Amid the Capital Injection
