Performance: Strong revenue performance anchors profit growth
- Profit after tax grew by 28.5% y/y to GHS 572.3m on account of a robust rise in both funded and non-funded income
- Net interest income increased by 25.6% y/y supported by double-digit growth in loans and advances and investment securities
- Non-funded income rose by 16.1% y/y mainly on the back of growth in fees and commission income. Growth in trading income slipped by 550bps y/y as a result of a slowdown in FX trading volumes
- Impairment loss on financial assets increased by 47.9% y/y to GHS 324.8m
- The bank’s cost to income ratio improved by 5.4pp y/y to 52.1%. ROaE increased by 1.72pp y/y to 24.2%
Outlook: Credit expansion to bolster earnings momentum
- In an environment marked by muted loan book growth, we were surprised to see the bank’s credit portfolio expand by 19.2% y/y in 2021. Much of the growth occurred in 4Q2021 with the loan book growing by GHS 568.2m
- We expect GCB to continue to increase lending in 2022 at a similar rate to drive growth in earnings. Given the lingering pandemic-induced loan repayment challenges, we also expect management to stay on course with its plans to increase the stock of salary-backed loans and self-liquidating corporate loans
- We expect growth in non-funded income to stay strong supported by a rise in credit-related fees from increased lending as well as a recovery in FX trade volumes as management works to address forex supply challenges experienced in 2021
- We maintain a cautious stance on the bank’s asset quality, even as management has expressed its commitment to recover 2 loan facilities in the hospitality and commerce sectors which constitute a significant proportion of the stock of non-performing loans
- Looking ahead, we expect bottom-line performance to remain robust and anticipate a moderation in the cost of risk in 2022 following management’s effort to clean its books last year
Valuation: Under Review
- GCB is trading at a P/B of 0.5x and we intend to re-initiate coverage in the coming months